Uneven ambient futures: Intersecting heat and housing trajectories in England and Wales

Despite being a key mechanism via which people are exposed (or not) to uncomfortable or dangerous ambient environments – the conditions of the air or other medium that surround us - housing is rarely considered in quantitative spatial assessments of future climatic changes and vulnerability, including extreme summer temperatures. Responding to increasing interest in futures across geography - particularly in a warming world - this paper conceptualises and analyses localised heat-housing trajectories for neighbourhoods in England and Wales. We apply sequence analysis to projected climate data to identify and characterise common trajectories of extreme summer temperatures. Heat trajectories are juxtaposed with housing data for ~15 million individual
properties detailing type, quality, and characteristics, derived from Energy Performance Certificates, as well as other socio-demographic data. Our approach is deliberately somewhat ‘speculative’ - a rehearsal spaces of sorts for different ways of responding to the prospect of uncertain futures. This enables us to consider different vulnerabilities that are likely to be reinforced, produced, or remediated by extreme summer temperatures. Our trajectories highlight the important role of precarity – a convergence of overlapping politically-induced crises - in shaping vulnerability to extreme summer temperatures, a dimension underexplored to date. We also evidence a tendency for older people to live in areas characterised by cooler temperatures, potentially mitigating vulnerability. We reflect on how we can conceptualise and map uneven ambient futures within the constraints of existing quantitative spatial data.