Values in the Valence Election: Fragmentation and the 2024 General Election

The 2024 general election delivered a verdict on an unpopular Conservative government, a valence election where the key motivation was to remove a government seen as failing. But this is not a full account of the voting choices of the British public. The rise of ‘second dimension’ politics and the associated value positions within the public have driven a fragmentation of the electorate. This, combined with multiparty competition, leads to complex patterns of party support across the electorate. This fragmentation explains the volatility in recent elections and the relative success of ‘third’ parties and independent candidates. It explains why, in a valence election, there was not a simple transfer of votes between alternative governing parties. This fragmentation poses electoral and policy challenges for all political parties and will have important implications for British politics over the next parliamentary cycle and beyond.