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Voting for Trump and the electoral mosaics of US metropolitan areas: Exploring changing patterns of party support by neighborhood

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@article{5214f18547d249c9a24c38cb1af695b1,
title = "Voting for Trump and the electoral mosaics of US metropolitan areas: Exploring changing patterns of party support by neighborhood",
abstract = "The socio-spatial structure of US metropolitan areas is the foundation of their electoral geographies: political parties and their candidates draw their support from separate groups within society whose spatial segregation is reproduced in voting patterns. As a consequence, when there are changes in a party's support base these should be reflected in its electoral landscape. The extent of such changes is explored here in analyses of precinct-scale voting patterns at the 2008, 2012 and 2016 US presidential elections across 373 SMSAs. Eight types of electoral mosaics are identified using a cluster analysis of those SMSAs and their distribution explored in the context of their socio-economic and -demographic characteristics. Of the eight types, the SMSAs in four showed little change in the voting profiles of their precincts between 2012 (Obama's second victory) and 2016 (when Trump won in the Electoral College but lost the popular vote); SMSAs in the other four types experienced considerable change, with many more rustbelt SMSA precincts delivering a Republican landslide at the latter contest.",
keywords = "Electoral geography, Landslide victories, Precincts, SMSAs, Spatial polarization, Trump",
author = "Ron Johnston and Ryne Rohla and David Manley and Kelvyn Jones",
year = "2019",
month = "3",
doi = "10.1016/j.cities.2018.12.011",
language = "English",
volume = "86",
pages = "94--101",
journal = "Cities",
issn = "0264-2751",
publisher = "Butterworths",

}

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Voting for Trump and the electoral mosaics of US metropolitan areas

T2 - Exploring changing patterns of party support by neighborhood

AU - Johnston, Ron

AU - Rohla, Ryne

AU - Manley, David

AU - Jones, Kelvyn

PY - 2019/3

Y1 - 2019/3

N2 - The socio-spatial structure of US metropolitan areas is the foundation of their electoral geographies: political parties and their candidates draw their support from separate groups within society whose spatial segregation is reproduced in voting patterns. As a consequence, when there are changes in a party's support base these should be reflected in its electoral landscape. The extent of such changes is explored here in analyses of precinct-scale voting patterns at the 2008, 2012 and 2016 US presidential elections across 373 SMSAs. Eight types of electoral mosaics are identified using a cluster analysis of those SMSAs and their distribution explored in the context of their socio-economic and -demographic characteristics. Of the eight types, the SMSAs in four showed little change in the voting profiles of their precincts between 2012 (Obama's second victory) and 2016 (when Trump won in the Electoral College but lost the popular vote); SMSAs in the other four types experienced considerable change, with many more rustbelt SMSA precincts delivering a Republican landslide at the latter contest.

AB - The socio-spatial structure of US metropolitan areas is the foundation of their electoral geographies: political parties and their candidates draw their support from separate groups within society whose spatial segregation is reproduced in voting patterns. As a consequence, when there are changes in a party's support base these should be reflected in its electoral landscape. The extent of such changes is explored here in analyses of precinct-scale voting patterns at the 2008, 2012 and 2016 US presidential elections across 373 SMSAs. Eight types of electoral mosaics are identified using a cluster analysis of those SMSAs and their distribution explored in the context of their socio-economic and -demographic characteristics. Of the eight types, the SMSAs in four showed little change in the voting profiles of their precincts between 2012 (Obama's second victory) and 2016 (when Trump won in the Electoral College but lost the popular vote); SMSAs in the other four types experienced considerable change, with many more rustbelt SMSA precincts delivering a Republican landslide at the latter contest.

KW - Electoral geography

KW - Landslide victories

KW - Precincts

KW - SMSAs

KW - Spatial polarization

KW - Trump

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85059095112&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.cities.2018.12.011

DO - 10.1016/j.cities.2018.12.011

M3 - Article

VL - 86

SP - 94

EP - 101

JO - Cities

JF - Cities

SN - 0264-2751

ER -