Abstract
Can potentially antisocial or criminal behaviour be predicted? Our study aimed to
ascertain (a) whether observers can successfully predict the onset of such behaviour when viewing
real recordings from CCTV; (b) where, in the sequence of events, it is possible to make this
prediction; and (c) whether there may be a difference between naive and professional observers.
We used 100 sample scenes from UK urban locations. Of these, 18 led to criminal behaviour
(fights or vandalism). A further 18 scenes were matched as closely as possible to the crime
examples, but did not lead to any crime, and 64 were neutral scenes chosen from a wide variety
of noncriminal situations. A signal-detection paradigm was used in conjunction with a 6-point
rating scale. Data from fifty naive and fifty professional observers suggest that (a) observers can
distinguish crime sequences from neutral sequences and from matches; (b) there are key types
of behaviour (particularly gestures and body position) that allow predictions to be made; (c) the
performance of naive observers is comparable to that of experts. However, because the experts
were predominantly male, the absence of an effect of experience may have been due to gender
differences, which were investigated in a subsidiary experiment. The results of experiment 2 leave
open the possibility that females perform better than males at such tasks.
Translated title of the contribution | What happens next? The predictability of natural behaviour viewed through CCTV cameras |
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Original language | English |
Pages (from-to) | 87 - 101 |
Number of pages | 15 |
Journal | PERCEPTION |
Volume | 33 (1) |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Jan 2004 |