Where Did Labour's Votes Go? Valence Politics and Campaign Effects at the 2010 British General Election

After its landslide victory at the 1997 UK general election, Labour lost some 4 million votes over the next two elections, and a further million between 2005 and 2010. Commentators disagree somewhat on the pattern of this latter loss. The relative importance of arguments based on sociological and valence politics perspectives on voting behaviour is evaluated here, alongside contextual arguments. Using data from the 2010 British Election Study Internet campaign panel survey, this article looks at the flow of the vote away from Labour from 2005 until the start of the 2010 campaign in April of that year, as well as changes to and from Labour during the campaign itself. Valence politics account for much of the variation, but local context is also important.