Will the three-network convergence happen? An evolution model based analysis

"Three-Network Convergence" refers to the way the telecommunications network, the TV broadcasting network, and the Internet converge and develop together, connecting the three networks and sharing their resources in the provisioning of Internet access, TV, and telephone services. A related term "triple play service" refers to the provisioning of the three services over a single broadband connection. The three-network convergence has been proposed for several years but has not yet been completed. The lack of quantitative analysis on network competitions results in difficulties in comparing different convergence proposals and reaching a consensus. To this end, this paper generalizes the current methods for modeling network evolution, and presents a roadmap for the study of the convergence issue with mathematical modeling. Then it examines the core features of the three networks, and finds the functional relationship between network cost and network user volume. Based on the relationship, it builds a three-network convergence evolution model. Finally, numerical calculations are performed by using estimated parameters and several groups of parameters within reasonable limits, and a number of interesting conclusions are drawn. The results show that (1) the convergence process requires additional impetus; (2) it is quite feasible to stimulate the process through financial investment; and (3) after the process is finished, overall network costs will be reduced.