Abstract
We present first results from the use of XGBoost, a highly effective machine learning (ML) method, within the Bristol Betting Exchange (BBE), an open-source agent-based model (ABM) designed to simulate a contemporary sports-betting exchange with in-play betting during track-racing events such as horse races. We use the BBE ABM and its array of minimally-simple bettor-agents as a synthetic data generator which feeds into our XGBoost ML system, with the intention that XGBoost discovers profitable dynamic betting strategies by learning from the more profitable bets made by the BBE bettor-agents. After this XGBoost training, which results in one or more decision trees, a bettor-agent with a betting strategy determined by the XGBoost-learned decision tree(s) is added to the BBE ABM and made to bet on a sequence of races under various conditions and betting-market scenarios, with profitability serving as the primary metric of comparison and evaluation. Our initial findings presented here show that XGBoost trained in this way can indeed learn profitable betting strategies, and can generalise to learn strategies that outperform each of the set of strategies used for creation of the training data. To foster further research and enhancements, the complete version of our extended BBE, including the XGBoost integration, has been made freely available as an open-source release on GitHub.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence (ICAART2024) |
Editors | Ana Paula Rocha, Luc Steels , Jaap van den Herik |
Publisher | SciTePress |
Pages | 159-171 |
Number of pages | 13 |
Volume | 1 |
ISBN (Print) | 978-989-758-680-4 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Accepted/In press - 27 Dec 2023 |
Event | ICAART2024 : 16th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence - Italy, Rome, Italy Duration: 24 Feb 2024 → 26 Feb 2024 Conference number: 16 https://icaart.scitevents.org/Home.aspx https://portal.insticc.org/SubmissionDeadlines/63e42b755652b110e22e62a4 https://icaart.scitevents.org/?y=2024 |
Conference
Conference | ICAART2024 |
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Abbreviated title | ICAART2024 |
Country/Territory | Italy |
City | Rome |
Period | 24/02/24 → 26/02/24 |
Internet address |
Keywords
- Agent-Based Models
- Sports Betting Exchanges
- In-Play Betting
- Dynamic Wager Placement
- Machine Learning
- XGBoost