Modelling the demand for adult social care services from adults with a learning disability, in England

Abstract

The demand for adult social care services is one of the greatest political, societal and financial challenges the government faces. In England, approximately a third of all adult social care users (130,000) are adults with a learning disability, aged 18 to 65, who receive long term adult social care support, costing about 25 percent of the total spend on adult social care. Local Authorities are responsible for meeting the care and support needs of this cohort, as assessed under the Care Act 2014. In order to manage the sufficiency of services, Local Authorities need to be able to make predictions about future demand for adult social care services from people with a learning disability. Most people with a learning disability who become eligible for adult social care services have already accessed children's welfare benefits and services. Access to welfare benefits requires need assessments to establish eligibility and between the ages of 16 and 25 young people with a learning disability experience multiple need assessments to access a new set of welfare benefits designed for adults.

This research involved three studies using an exploratory multi-mode research design, with primary quantitative and secondary qualitative research methods. It began with a qualitative study that explored how a group of young people with a learning disability imagine their futures, alongside a document analysis of the welfare benefits people with a learning disability use. A quantitative study followed, establishing the relationship between different welfare benefit datasets and forecasting five year predictions for adult social care services in England. This research concludes that by critically reflecting on the variety of ways the government plays a role in need satisfaction for children and adults with a learning disability, a broader selection of data becomes useful in understanding how the demand for adult social care could change in the future.

Date of Award	17 Mar 2026
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	University of Bristol
Supervisor	Ailsa M Cameron (Supervisor) & Demi Patsios (Supervisor)