Power Play Along Rivers of the Mekong

: Smaller States and Everyday Hydropolitics in Southeast Asia

Abstract

Existing scholarship has highlighted that the policy behaviours of smaller states are often reactive to the risks and uncertainties inherent in the anarchic inter-state system. However, less attention has been paid to the geostrategic discourse articulated by elites of smaller states in explaining their policy behaviour as they navigate a complex and uncertain international environment to achieve their policy goals. Consequently, current literature falls short in accounting for the ‘non-rational’ policy behaviours exhibited by small state elites in international affairs. This thesis examines the explanatory link between geopolitical narratives constructed by policy practitioners and their corresponding policy behaviours and strategies aimed at achieving political objectives. Focusing on the Mekong dam controversies, the thesis begins with a key observation: despite opposition from external actors—including foreign donors, neighbouring countries, major powers, and civil society—elites in smaller states such as Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar continue to advance their hydropower agendas. This leads to two central questions: What explains the persistence of hydropower development in smaller states? And how do these states navigate opposition from external parties? To address these questions, the thesis draws on insights from Critical Geopolitics, which emphasises the socially constructed nature of waterscapes and the geopolitical perceptions of smaller states. Fieldwork is based on three primary data sources: participation in diplomatic events, elite interviews, and archival research. By systematically analysing hydropower disputes surrounding three key dams—the Xayaburi Dam, Lower Sesan II Dam, and Myitsone Dam—this thesis offers two main contributions. First, it provides a new empirical account of smaller states and dam-building, arguing that hydropower policy agendas are legitimised through discursive representations of rivers and domestic political concerns. This adds nuance to the prevailing view that such projects merely reflect smaller states’ embrace of China’s economic charm offensive. Second, the thesis demonstrates that the ability of small states to achieve their policy objectives hinges on their creative policy strategies, including the use of policy ambiguities, informal elite networks, and the politicised application of scientific assessment procedures. Ultimately, the findings challenge the notion that smaller states are passive actors. Instead, the elites of small powers exhibit creative agency in navigating policy challenges and external opposition in international affairs.

Date of Award	17 Mar 2026
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	University of Bristol
Supervisor	Yongjin Zhang (Supervisor) & Rob P A Yates (Supervisor)