Unchartered Scenario Spaces of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

: Mapping a Beyond-Growth Future onto the SSPs

Abstract

In the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), economic growth, particularly "green growth", is represented as the driving force behind tackling climate change and ensuring societal harmony. Using growth primacy to frame economic development in the SSPs has substantial implications for the exploration of robust climate policy strategies. Wherein alternative forms of economic development are excluded, thereby limiting future climate imaginaries. This project aims to illuminate some of the emerging complexities around centering neoclassical economics in the SSP framework and Integrated Assessment Models; which play an important role in distracting attention from the ecologically and socially damaging nature of limitless economic growth. Based on these findings, I explore the unchartered scenario spaces in the SSP framework which have the potential to represent a thriving future in which economic growth is de-prioritized or rejected as a measure of wealth and progress. The lens through which the SSPs and IAMs view economic development is examined through a systematic review of the literature. This is accompanied by an analysis of the no-policy baseline implementations of the SSPs in the IIASA database. This work informs a qualitative narrative, outlining the key dimensions of a Beyond-Growth scenario space and underlining the potential distinctions between "post-growth" and "degrowth" scenarios. To recreate this narrative quantitatively, the climate-economic model ClimateMARGO was used to test a rudimentary interpretation of a Beyond-Growth scenario focusing primarily on economic development.

Date of Award	6 Dec 2022
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	University of Bristol
Supervisor	Ed Atkins (Supervisor) & Oliver D Andrews (Supervisor)